Phase 3: Scaling · Chapter 8

Channel Physics

8 min read

Core Argument: Every acquisition channel has an "economic gravity" - a stage at which it works and a stage at which it collapses. Choosing the wrong channel for your stage is not a tactical error. It is a structural failure.

The Channel Fantasy

Founders love to believe that growth is a matter of finding the "right channel." The fantasy: somewhere out there is a magical distribution mechanism that, once discovered, will unlock exponential growth.

This is a misunderstanding of how channels work.

Channels are not inherently good or bad. They are stage-dependent. A channel that produces spectacular returns at $1M ARR may be mathematically impossible at $100k ARR.


The Three Laws of Channel Physics

Law 1: CAC Scales with Competition

Every channel becomes more expensive as more companies compete within it. Google Ads for "CRM software" cost $2/click in 2010. Today: $50+/click.

Implication: Channels that worked five years ago may no longer be viable today.

Law 2: Minimum Viable Spend Creates Floors

Most channels have a minimum investment threshold below which no meaningful signal emerges.

  • Paid social: $10-20k/month minimum for statistical significance
  • Content marketing: 12-18 months of consistent investment before compounding
  • Events: $50k+ per meaningful conference presence

Implication: If you cannot afford the minimum viable spend, the channel does not exist for you.

Law 3: Conversion Ceilings Are Real

No channel converts at 100%. Each has a maximum conversion potential based on intent levels. Cold outbound: 1-3%. Inbound content: 5-15%. Referrals: 30-50%.


The Channel-Stage Fit Matrix

ChannelPre-$50k$50k-$100k$100k-$500k
Founder Outbound✅ Primary✅ Primary⚠️ Transition
Warm Referrals✅ Primary✅ Secondary✅ Secondary
Content/SEO⚠️ Plant seeds⚠️ Build foundation✅ Primary
Paid Ads❌ Too expensive⚠️ Test only✅ Secondary
Events❌ Too expensive❌ Limited ROI⚠️ Selective

The Pre-$100k Channel Stack

At pre-$100k ARR, the channel options are limited by economics:

Primary: Founder Outbound - Direct, personalized outreach from the founder. Highest conversion rate. Lowest cost. Does not scale, but provides learning and validation.

Secondary: Warm Network - Referrals, introductions, and second-degree connections. Higher conversion than cold. Limited by network size.

Investment: Content Foundation - Start creating content that will compound. Not for immediate returns - for long-term leverage.


Channel Hopping: The Death Spiral

The failure mode: founders rapidly switch between channels without sustained investment, producing no meaningful data from any single channel.

The rule: Commit to a channel for 90 days minimum before evaluating. Anything shorter produces noise, not signal.


Conclusion: Match Channel to Stage

The founders who burn through runway "testing channels" are not unlucky. They are ignorant of channel physics.

At $0-$100k, the only channels that work are the ones that don't require budget: founder outbound and warm network. Everything else is a bet you cannot afford to make.

Match your channel to your stage. The physics are not negotiable.

Key Frameworks

Channel-Stage Fit Matrix
A framework mapping acquisition channels to company stages based on economic viability. Prevents investment in channels that are structurally impossible at a given stage.
Economic Gravity
The underlying economic forces that determine whether a channel is viable at a given company stage. Includes CAC scaling, minimum viable spend, and conversion ceilings.

References

  1. Reforge (2024). Channel Sequencing Framework. Link
  2. First Round Review (2024). The Right Channel at the Right Stage. Link