The Validation Fallacy
Core Argument: Surveys, landing pages, and "interest" are not validation. Validation is a transaction. The only proof of demand is payment.
The Consensus Trap
The startup ecosystem has institutionalized a dangerous lie: that you can "validate" an idea before building it.
The standard playbook: Have an idea. Create a landing page. Run ads. Collect email addresses. Survey those people about "pain points." Declare validation based on "interest." Build the product.
This process feels rigorous. It has steps. It produces data. It is also almost entirely worthless.
What people say they will do and what they actually do are separated by a chasm that has swallowed thousands of startups. Customer discovery surveys have near-zero predictive validity for purchase behavior.
Remotir's methodology begins with a harder truth: Validation is not a survey. Validation is a transaction.
Why "Interest" Is Not Validation
The Psychology of "Interest"
When you ask someone "Would you pay for a tool that does X?" - you are asking them to imagine a hypothetical future self with a hypothetical problem and hypothetical budget authority.
Humans are terrible at this. We overestimate future motivation. We underestimate switching costs. We say "yes" to be polite.
The result: A 70% "would buy" response rate routinely translates to a sub-5% actual conversion rate.
The Economics of Email Signups
A signup costs the user approximately 3 seconds of effort and carries no commitment. The "waitlist" has become a vanity metric that founders use to convince themselves demand exists.
Case in point: A Remotir client launched with a 4,200-person waitlist, acquired at $1.80 per signup. Conversion to paid: 1.2%. Fifty customers from $7,560 in ad spend. The waitlist was not validation. It was expensive fiction.
The Transactional Validation Protocol
Only one thing validates demand: a transaction.
A transaction is the transfer of value - money, in most cases - in exchange for a promise of future delivery. It is the only signal that cannot be faked, gamed, or misinterpreted.
Tier 1: Pre-Sale Commitment
A prospect has paid money - any amount - for a product that does not yet exist, in exchange for early access, a discount, or a founding customer benefit.
Minimum threshold: 3-5 unrelated buyers (not friends, family, or existing network contacts).
Tier 2: Letter of Intent (LOI)
A prospect has signed a letter stating their intent to purchase at a specified price point once the product is available.
Minimum threshold: 5-10 LOIs from qualified buyers with budget authority confirmed.
Tier 3: Pilot Commitment
A prospect has agreed to a paid pilot engagement with a defined scope, timeline, and success criteria.
Minimum threshold: 3 pilots with clear conversion criteria.
Diagnostic: Have You Actually Validated?
1. The Cash Test: Has anyone you do not personally know paid you money for this product or a promise of this product?
2. The Stranger Test: Could you remove all warm introductions from your customer list and still have buyers remaining?
3. The Price Test: Did you sell at a price point that would be sustainable at scale?
4. The Repeat Test: Do you have a hypothesis for how you would acquire the next 10 customers using the same method?
Scoring: 4/4 = proceed. 3/4 = address the gap. 2/4 or below = return to sales before writing code.
Conclusion: The Only Lie Detector
The startup graveyard is filled with products that had "validated demand." They had landing pages with impressive signup numbers. They had survey results showing 80% intent to purchase. They did not have customers.
Validation is not a feeling. It is not a survey. It is not a signup.
Validation is a transaction. Stop surveying. Start selling.