Deal Forensics
Core Premise: Stuck deals and slipped deals emit signals weeks before they fail. Stall Signals are observable and actionable. The Decision Audit identifies what must be true for a deal to close.
The Slip Pattern
The deal was going well. The champion was engaged. Meetings were happening. Then:
"They need more time to evaluate." "The decision got pushed to next quarter." "They went dark."
They should not be surprised. The deal was signaling distress for weeks. Deals do not fail suddenly. They decay gradually.
Deal Forensics is the practice of reading these signals and responding before decay becomes death.
Stall Signals
Category 1: Engagement Signals
Champion Goes Dark - Your internal advocate stops responding. Emails take days instead of hours.
Meeting Quality Declines - Meetings happen but feel perfunctory. Questions are superficial.
Stakeholder Access Narrows - You were meeting with multiple stakeholders. Now you are only meeting with one.
Category 2: Process Signals
"Internal Alignment" Is Mentioned - The buyer says they need to "align internally" with no specific timeline.
Legal/Procurement Delays - The contract was supposed to go to legal two weeks ago.
Timeline Keeps Moving - The decision was supposed to happen last month. Now it is this month.
Category 3: Competition Signals
New Questions Emerge - Questions that feel like they came from a different source.
Request for Proposal Revisit - They are comparing your offer to alternatives.
Category 4: Decision Signals
Decision Maker Is Absent - The economic buyer was engaged early but has not appeared recently.
"We Need to Think About It" - No specific concerns raised. No specific next steps defined.
Signal Pattern Recognition
Yellow (Caution): Single signal or minor signals Orange (At Risk): Multiple signals or significant signal Red (Critical): Strong signals or signal pattern
The Decision Audit
For any deal, answer these questions:
- Who makes the decision? Name the specific person.
- What is the decision process? Steps between now and signature.
- What is the decision timeline? When will each step occur?
- What must be true for a yes? List the conditions.
- What evidence exists for each condition? What you have verified, not assumed.
- What could cause a no? List the risks.
Intervention Tactics
The Direct Question: "I noticed we have not been able to connect. Has something changed?"
The Champion Check: "How is this project being received internally?"
The Voice Change: Bring a different voice - sales engineer, executive, customer reference.
The Forcing Function: Create urgency through legitimate constraints.
The Graceful Exit: Sometimes the deal cannot be saved. Exit gracefully.
Case Study: The Early Warning System
A Remotir client ($15M ARR) had a pattern: deals were slipping in the final week of the quarter.
Analysis of 30 slipped deals: 87% had exhibited at least two Stall Signals three or more weeks before slip.
After implementing signal recognition: - Slipped deals decreased 62% - Win rate on intervened deals: 34% - Forecast accuracy improved from 74% to 89%
The company got better at seeing. Deals that were going to slip were identified earlier.